If you think Artificial Intelligence (AI) is new, the opposite is the case. Ray Kurzweil has been working in the field for 61 years - longer than anyone else alive. Most of us were unaware of AI until ChatGPT came into existence recently. But now AI is at the center of the global conversation, something Ray is very happy about.
Back in 1999, when Ray predicted that we would have Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) by 2029, most experts thought he was writing fiction. But his estimate was not far off, and now many experts are of the opinion that we will have AGI even sooner. AGI is a type of AI that can solve all kinds of problems as well or (usually) better than humans. Ray now has new prophecies about what AGI will mean for us in the near term in three important areas.
Energy
Today's technology relies heavily on energy sources. For the last two hundred years fossil fuels have been used as the main sources. Unfortunately, they pollute the environment and are not renewable so we need to stop using them due to the toxic output they emit. Therefore, it is necessary to use different sources without delay, which do not involve such pollution. Fortunately, we have no shortage of options, but unfortunately, they all come with different problems. Take solar power, for example. If only 0.01% of the sunlight received by the earth was harvested, the energy needs of the human race would be completely supplied. But solar power is still not cost-effective compared to fossil fuels, although things are moving in the right direction. In particular, the costs of the chemicals associated with the technology are too high. And that is where AGI will be able to help us a lot. AGI will be able to simulate millions of materials, and find the most efficient ones for us, so that we have almost free energy at our disposal. It will be a fundamental change, without a doubt.
Manufacturing
Prices for industrial products come from three main sources: energy, labor and materials. AGI will be able to provide energy that uses low cost materials. But what about the labor cost? Significant progress has already been made in the field of robotics in automating physical work. Undoubtedly, there will be more significant improvements in this area over time. This means that most items will become incredibly cheap and plentiful.
Medicine
Price performance will continue to drop in the computing space as well. In addition, there are innovations currently underway such as quantum computing that could fuel exponential growth in the AGI field. A new term is already being used for that alone – Quantum Intelligence – but that's a topic for another day. In any case, before long AGI will be able to develop new drugs to cure all kinds of diseases. And AGI will be able to adapt drugs to the needs of one person, because each of us has a unique biochemistry. The need for clinical trials will not be the same either, as AGI will be able to simulate trials. Digital trials will allow us to tailor medicines to each patient on an individual basis. It will enable us not only to cure diseases such as cancer and Alzheimer's, but also to greatly reduce the harmful effects of ageing. This is the most significant promise of ISG: much longer and healthier lives for us.
Conclusion
I was stunned when I read the predictions mentioned above. Isn't Ray dreaming? Well, maybe he is, but Ray needs to be listened to for many reasons. First of all, his prophecies (in the nineties) came true, regarding the World Wide Web, smart phones and digital media. Second, Ray is an innovator who has had great success using AI to create new products. For example, he designed and developed an optical character recognition system back in the seventies; a music synthesizer in the eighties; 'text to language' products in the nineties, and financial technology (fintech) software at the beginning of this century.
Thirdly, Ray published one of his most provocative books to date, in 2005: 'The Singularity Is Near'. In this book, he gives us more details about the 'Singularity' - that is when ISG will be available for the first time and computers will become smarter than humans. After reading that book, it was clear to me that Ray is a world-class expert in the field of IS and ISG, and that we need to pay due attention to what he has to say.
Finally, price performance will continue to decrease in the computing field over time. There is also innovation currently underway such as quantum computing that could fuel exponential growth in the ISG field. A new term is already being used for just that – Quantum Intelligence – but that's a topic for another day.
It is clear, therefore, that there is serious thought behind his predictions, and Ray himself has special wisdom. In my opinion, we have no choice but to believe most of his predictions, even though they make us wary. But, as the old saying goes: forewarned is forearmed!
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