Shamrock Opportunity!

In a few weeks, the Taoiseach will stand in the East Room of the White House. The bowl of shamrock will be presented. Cameras will click and flash. The familiar annual words about friendship and historic ties will be heard.

But behind that ceremony, a more serious question lies hidden.

More than €20 billion in corporate tax was collected in Ireland last year, much of it from a small number of multinational companies headquartered in the United States. It is therefore natural for Taoiseach Micheál Martin to be cautious in conversation with President Trump, since no one can predict the response if tensions were to arise. What should the Taoiseach do — remain silent, or speak honestly about our views?

To navigate an international landscape that is becoming more uncertain by the minute, it is worth looking to Canada and its Prime Minister, Mark Carney.

Carney is known internationally as the former Governor of the Bank of Canada and later of the Bank of England. He earned respect for his steadiness during periods of financial turmoil. His credibility rests on action rather than words.

Carney’s grandparents were from County Mayo. He holds Irish citizenship and frequently speaks publicly about that rich heritage.

There are structural similarities between Canada and Ireland. Both countries are deeply economically integrated with the United States. Both rely heavily on open trade with it, and both are vulnerable when the tone or direction of American policy shifts. Recently, that risk has become more visible and more significant.

Carney’s response has been measured. At Davos earlier this year, he outlined what might be called a “middle-power strategy.” He did not attack the United States. Instead, he argued that smaller countries strengthen themselves through coordination and cooperation with one another.

That principle was evident recently in the case of Greenland. When President Trump renewed his interest in acquiring Greenland, a semi-autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark, Denmark and the government of Greenland responded clearly: the territory was not for sale nor open for negotiation. European Union leaders expressed support for Denmark, and NATO partners reaffirmed their security commitments in the Arctic. The tariff threats associated with the dispute were withdrawn, and the matter did not escalate into a broader crisis.

The episode demonstrated the strength of allies when they stand together.

Canada will continue to trade and cooperate with the United States while at the same time expanding its economic and strategic options. That is risk management. Diversification reduces vulnerability.

In Ireland, a significant portion of corporate tax revenue depends on a small number of companies based in the United States. Pharmaceutical and technology exports to America make up a substantial part of our trade balance. If there were a sudden shift in Washington’s policy, Ireland’s economy would be hit harder than that of many larger EU countries with more diversified revenue bases.

Ireland can maintain and strengthen its economic relationship with the United States while at the same time expanding trade and investment links elsewhere — independently and through the European Union. A broader trade base reduces the risk associated with policy changes in any single capital.

That brings us back to St. Patrick’s Day.

Year after year, proposals are put forward calling for a boycott of the White House visit. But it would not be wise to take that advice. Ireland has symbolic access in Washington that countries of similar size do not enjoy. That access is a significant opportunity.

In my view, the question is not whether the Taoiseach should attend Washington. The real question is how Micheál Martin will use that opportunity on St. Patrick’s Day.

The Taoiseach can calmly and clearly express Ireland’s commitment to cooperation based on international rules and predictable trade. He can articulate his position without jeopardizing the partnership. That is consistent with Ireland’s diplomatic tradition and aligned with many of its European partners.

Carney’s emphasis on diversification is appropriate for a world that is more uncertain than before. He offers a practical approach — not only for Canada, but for countries like Ireland navigating this new world without a map. All that remains now for Micheál Martin is to seize the opportunity on St. Patrick’s Day.