Donald Trump and Elon Musk have created an advisory agency outside the United States government that will advise Trump on how to cut a significant amount of spending from the federal budget. Musk initially thought he could cut $2 trillion, but later admitted that it would be a smaller amount. But cutting a significant amount – an amount that would make a big difference – will not be easy. To understand this, it is necessary to explain a few things about the US federal budget.

U.S.A. Federal Budget

The federal government has a budget of $6.75 trillion for 2024. The budget is divided into two parts: mandatory spending and discretionary spending. Mandatory spending cannot be cut, as Trump himself has declared, no matter how big or small it is. In that category, programs such as: health (Medicare and others): 28%; Social Security: 21%; defense: 18% and repayment of the national debt: 14%. That’s 81% of the federal budget, or nearly $5.5 trillion of the $6.75 trillion. Even if you cut everything in the discretionary budget (veteran benefits, transportation, agriculture, unemployment benefits, housing assistance, and more), you’d only cut $1.25 trillion. But it wouldn’t be realistic to cut everything discretionary.

We don’t know much about Musk’s intentions when it comes to cutting back. Incidentally, Vivek Ramaswamy, a former presidential candidate and tech billionaire, was originally Musk’s partner, but he’s leaving that position to run for governor in Ohio. But there are other tech stars like venture capitalist Marc Andreessen working with Musk at D.O.G.E. There’s no shortage of smart people, no doubt!

D.O.G.E. Plans

Musk and Ramaswamy wrote that the main focus would be “reductions in the number of employees across the federal bureaucracy.” Otherwise, however, the story is shrouded in secrecy. It’s no wonder that federal employees are wary of the uncertainty surrounding their careers. It’s easy to believe that those same employees are in a state of awe and fear, especially when you consider what Musk did to Twitter after buying it—namely, laying off 80% of its employees.

On the other hand, however, as other industry leaders have discovered, there are significant differences between government and industry. Cutting or even changing any aspect of government—from headcount to budget to the rules pages in the federal register—is a thankless task.

The challenges facing D.O.G.E.

In any case, it won’t be easy for Musk and his employees at D.O.G.E. achieve its objective. Here are a few difficulties they will face:

Another Challenge!

This is not the first time that federal spending has been cut. In the past 50 years, annual federal spending has only been cut five times, and no reduction has been greater than 8%. Those cuts have occurred in special cases – after the 2008-9 financial crisis, and after the 2020-2023 pandemic. Even in the 1980s under Ronald Reagan himself, who created a commission to reduce federal spending and instructed its members to “work like a bloodhound without ceasing,” spending increased every year.

Conclusion

The United States Congress is in charge of spending. On the one hand, its members say that government spending needs to be cut, but on the other (and for good reason!) they are not willing to cut spending in their own constituencies.

This puts D.O.G.E. in trouble, and they are gradually learning the hard truth in that department. Musk recently said that a $2 trillion cut would be the best case scenario, and while he would try to achieve that goal, they are more likely to reach $1 trillion. D.O.G.E. has been putting its own employees in federal operations for quite some time, to gain a deeper understanding of their operations and inefficiencies.

Musk and D.O.G.E. aim to have the task completed by July 4, 2026. That way, if legislation is needed, Congress will have six months to pass it. When you consider how large and complex the U.S. government is, they’re going to need every minute of that time in D.O.G.E. for this massive and complex task!

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When we arrived in California years ago, we had never seen a motorway or freeway before, except on television. The Dublin to Naas dual carriageway was the closest thing we had to an Irish highway at the time.

I was terrified of them and tried my best to stay clear of them. I was successful at first, but that quickly ended when I accidentally drove up an on-ramp. There was nothing to do but go with the flow and then we were on the freeway! I had a death grip on the steering wheel and was bent over it. I was sweating! I stayed in the slow lane and kept driving. We knew we had to drive out on an off-ramp as soon as we could or we would end up in San Francisco.

Finally, I managed to escape the freeway at a place called ‘Pacific Palisades’. You may recognize the name because it is now a household name around the world.

In those early days we thought we were in Heaven on Earth. The weather was perfect every day and there was a culture of convenience. Unfortunately, it was short-lived, and our honeymoon came to an abrupt end one day when there was an earthquake. We had the TV on and the news reporter quickly ducked under the news desk. Our building was rocking back and forth but it remained intact. You would think the shaking would never stop, but eventually it did.

It rained a lot during our first winter living in Los Angeles, resulting in landslides and mudslides and the destruction of several homes.

Although there had been some significant damage from wildfires in our early days in California, things got worse over time. Wildfires are more frequent and dangerous today than ever before. Global warming probably has something to do with it. We lived on the edge of the woods for many years, completely unaware of the dangers of fire. We bought a house by the ocean twenty-five years ago so that we could be closer to our workplaces, and we are there still. We didn’t realize at the time that there was a big advantage to that – wildfires are rare here, because the mountains are not close to us. There was a terrible wildfire in this county (San Diego) in 2003, and many of my colleagues lost their homes in that wildfire – the ‘Cedar Fire’. My son and I had to drive by that wildfire on our way home from a road trip. It was terrifying to be so close to flames that touched the sky itself. The air was hot and there was a strong smell of burning. We could also hear the roar of the fire. When you see and hear a fire that big and so close, you have a new understanding of the danger, scale and scope of a fire. That understanding stays with you forever.

No doubt, you saw the fires in Pacific Palisades and Altadena on TV, and you heard all the news about it. The fires are tearing apart and destroying everything in their path, small, medium or large, and those suburbs are right in the way. Between Pacific Palisades and Altadena, more than 12,000 buildings have burned to the ground so far. At least 25 people have died so far. It is a terrible disaster that has affected many families, and it will be very difficult for them for many years to come.

There are two main reasons for these terrible fires. First of all, we have been suffering from a drought for the past 8 months. Therefore, all the vegetation is very dry. Secondly, the dry desert winds (‘Santa Anas’) have been blowing in their wake for the past week, at high speeds of up to 160 km per hour. In such climatic conditions, it only takes one spark to ignite a fire and that is exactly what happened in these cases.

It is always difficult to deal with disasters of this magnitude as they occur, and although the fire crew was on the scene quite quickly, and although firefighting aircraft were dropping relentlessly, various problems soon became apparent. The fire crew does not have sufficient resources, due to the fact that its budget allocation has been cut year after year. In addition, some of the fire hydrants further up the mountains dried up, so that water was not available to firefighters at a critical time. The residential water system is not designed to cope with such demands being placed on it. Many investigations will be conducted to discuss and understand these issues to see what we can do to improve matters.

There are currently 8 fires burning in the region, and thousands of firefighters are working hard to put them out. Firefighters have come from all over to help – from California, other states in the United States, Canada and Mexico. FEMA (the Federal Emergency Management Agency) is on the ground providing care, advice and financial assistance to victims of the disaster. Hundreds of police (LAPD) and National Guardsmen are patrolling the area, preventing crime.

It is a very difficult time for those who have lost family members or friends. It is not easy for those who are now homeless, especially those who were burned out of their homes. Almost 100,000 people are currently under evacuation orders, and it is very difficult for them to find shelter. It will take a long time to clean up, and many years to rebuild.

But the reality is that Southern California is under constant threat from natural disasters, including earthquakes. The landslides, floods, and mudslides are likely to get worse over time. This will increase the challenges we face and make it more dangerous to live here. While it is Heaven on Earth most of the time, it is Hell on Earth at other times!

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“There are decades when nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen.” - Vladimir Lenin, founder of the Communist Party of Russia.

There was an abrupt end to the civil war that had been going on in Syria since 2011 - the Arab Spring, a time of demonstrations and protests in the Arab world, including Syria. Dictator Bashar al-Assad stood firm at the time. He had a strong army and with the help of Lebanon (and especially Hezbollah forces), Russia and Iran, he brutally suppressed the uprising. It is reported that more than half a million Syrians were killed and millions were driven from their homes during the war, and that six million have become refugees in other countries as a result.

He did not win against the rebels this time. Why?

Ebbing Alliances!

This time, everything was different. The rebel forces cut through the country like a knife through butter, and the official army barely put up any resistance. The largest group among the rebels is “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” (HTS), an Islamist militant group led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. Although these groups have existed since the beginning of the war, they recognized weaknesses in President Bashar al-Assad, and especially in a couple of important countries that were allied with him – Russia and Iran. HTS seized that historic opportunity, and they succeeded brilliantly. But why did Russia and Iran not do anything this time?

Russia

The world saw where the ugly dictator Bashar al-Assad went when the traitor returned. He did what any terrorist would do and fled as soon as he could. And where did he go but to Moscow, where he is safe, under the protection of the president – Vladimir Putin. They will be able to sympathize with each other about what happened in Syria. The huge losses were not only for al-Assad, but for Putin as well. As former Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba said: “Putin threw Bashar al-Assad under the bus, so that he could prolong his war in Ukraine. He is short of resources, and he is not as strong as he makes himself out to be!” Even Donald Trump had a few words to say, saying: “Because Russia is so tied up in Ukraine, and because they have lost more than 600,000 soldiers there, they have not had the ability to stop the march through Syria, a country that they have defended for years.”

There is no doubt that the victory of the rebel forces over the al-Assad regime revealed that what Putin has going on outside Russia is only posturing.

Iran

In recent months, Iran has been unable to thwart Israeli operations. Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Tehran. Israel has attacked about 20 military targets in Iran. After a military campaign against them, Hamas and Hezbollah have been badly beaten by Israel, and their military power has been reduced. Iran has been supporting Hamas and Hezbollah because they fight on their behalf. Iran and Hezbollah have been using Syria to transport weapons and supplies to Lebanon. They no longer have that option, and so the Axis of Resistance (Iran, Syria up until now, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis from Yemen and a few other groups in Iraq) is so badly beaten that you would think it is dead. We'll see.

Syria

What is the future of Syria itself? HTS is seeking to install a transitional government, with Mohammed al-Bashir as its leader. He was previously the leader of HTS's territories in the north-west of the country. The leader and HTS will face many difficulties in achieving stability for the country.

The country is home to various ethnic groups, including: Arabs, Kurds, Turks, Assyrians, Armenians, Circassians, Druze, Alawites, Yazidis and Palestinian refugees. There are also people of various faiths, including: Muslims (both Sunni and Shia), Alawites, Christians, Yazidis, Druze and Jews.

The country's economy is in poor condition as a result of the civil war. The economy has been shrinking for more than 13 years - currently one-sixth of its pre-war size.

More than half of the country’s population has been displaced, and an estimated 16.7 million people are in need of assistance. Some 6.3 million are refugees or asylum seekers, and many are now seeking to return home.

Syria is a strategic country in the Middle East, bordered by Turkey to the north, Iraq to the east, Jordan to the south, and Israel and Lebanon to the southwest. The country will be able to exert a major influence on the balance of power in the Middle East, and many other countries will undoubtedly have a vested interest in Syria as a result.

A Steadying Hand?

So far, I have only seen a couple of countries involved in Syria – the United States and Israel. But instead of providing aid to the country, they have been heavily bombing military targets there. What kind of aid is that? Such behavior does not send the right message to Syria, or even to the wider world.  

But Syria can be supported through their difficulties. The countries that have imposed sanctions on Syria should ease them soon, and pledge funding to rebuild its infrastructure. The country is also in a humanitarian crisis, and humanitarian aid is urgently needed. It would also be appropriate for the United Nations to introduce a peacekeeping force as an interim measure, until a lasting recovery and political stability can be seen in the country.

While it is encouraging that the Assad regime has been overthrown, this is not over yet, and Syria is currently a fragile state. Let us hope that this is not the calm before the storm, but it is too early to tell.

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