Tairngreachtaí Suntasacha!

Noteworthy Predictions

by | 2024/07/03 | Science and Technology, Opinion

If you think Artificial Intelligence (AI) is new, the opposite is the case. Ray Kurzweil has been working in the field for 61 years - longer than anyone else alive. Most of us were unaware of AI until ChatGPT came into existence recently. But now AI is at the center of the global conversation, something Ray is very happy about.

Back in 1999, when Ray predicted that we would have Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) by 2029, most experts thought he was writing fiction. But his estimate was not far off, and now many experts are of the opinion that we will have AGI even sooner. AGI is a type of AI that can solve all kinds of problems as well or (usually) better than humans. Ray now has new prophecies about what AGI will mean for us in the near term in three important areas.

Energy

Today's technology relies heavily on energy sources. For the last two hundred years fossil fuels have been used as the main sources. Unfortunately, they pollute the environment and are not renewable so we need to stop using them due to the toxic output they emit. Therefore, it is necessary to use different sources without delay, which do not involve such pollution. Fortunately, we have no shortage of options, but unfortunately, they all come with different problems. Take solar power, for example. If only 0.01% of the sunlight received by the earth was harvested, the energy needs of the human race would be completely supplied. But solar power is still not cost-effective compared to fossil fuels, although things are moving in the right direction. In particular, the costs of the chemicals associated with the technology are too high. And that is where AGI will be able to help us a lot. AGI will be able to simulate millions of materials, and find the most efficient ones for us, so that we have almost free energy at our disposal. It will be a fundamental change, without a doubt.

Manufacturing

Prices for industrial products come from three main sources: energy, labor and materials. AGI will be able to provide energy that uses low cost materials. But what about the labor cost? Significant progress has already been made in the field of robotics in automating physical work. Undoubtedly, there will be more significant improvements in this area over time. This means that most items will become incredibly cheap and plentiful.

Medicine

Price performance will continue to drop in the computing space as well. In addition, there are innovations currently underway such as quantum computing that could fuel exponential growth in the AGI field. A new term is already being used for that alone – Quantum Intelligence – but that's a topic for another day. In any case, before long AGI will be able to develop new drugs to cure all kinds of diseases. And AGI will be able to adapt drugs to the needs of one person, because each of us has a unique biochemistry. The need for clinical trials will not be the same either, as AGI will be able to simulate trials. Digital trials will allow us to tailor medicines to each patient on an individual basis. It will enable us not only to cure diseases such as cancer and Alzheimer's, but also to greatly reduce the harmful effects of ageing. This is the most significant promise of ISG: much longer and healthier lives for us.

Conclusion

I was stunned when I read the predictions mentioned above. Isn't Ray dreaming? Well, maybe he is, but Ray needs to be listened to for many reasons. First of all, his prophecies (in the nineties) came true, regarding the World Wide Web, smart phones and digital media. Second, Ray is an innovator who has had great success using AI to create new products. For example, he designed and developed an optical character recognition system back in the seventies; a music synthesizer in the eighties; 'text to language' products in the nineties, and financial technology (fintech) software at the beginning of this century.

Thirdly, Ray published one of his most provocative books to date, in 2005: 'The Singularity Is Near'. In this book, he gives us more details about the 'Singularity' - that is when ISG will be available for the first time and computers will become smarter than humans. After reading that book, it was clear to me that Ray is a world-class expert in the field of IS and ISG, and that we need to pay due attention to what he has to say.

Finally, price performance will continue to decrease in the computing field over time. There is also innovation currently underway such as quantum computing that could fuel exponential growth in the ISG field. A new term is already being used for just that – Quantum Intelligence – but that's a topic for another day.

It is clear, therefore, that there is serious thought behind his predictions, and Ray himself has special wisdom. In my opinion, we have no choice but to believe most of his predictions, even though they make us wary. But, as the old saying goes: forewarned is forearmed!

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Moltaí don chéad Phaindéim eile!

Suggestions for the next Pandemic!

by | 2023/04/12 | Current Affairs, Science and Technology, International News, National News

Suggestions for the next Pandemic!

Last week I mentioned five lessons we learned from the pandemic. In this article, I have recommendations so that we are prepared to deal with the next pandemic.

1.1. Official inquiry

We need to have an official inquiry in Ireland about the restrictive measures implemented by the government during the pandemic. Only then will we be able to improve our preparation in the future. That was the suggestion of Labor Party Deputy Duncan Smith recently.

“If we don't have that inquiry soon we will only have more media commentary, newspaper articles, best-selling books and academic assessments of what we did or didn't do. That's ultimately not useful for learning from our mistakes and building on what we did right,” Smith said.

I think he is right and this is the first step in moving towards devising better processes for the next pandemic.

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2.Government investment in proven solutions

The experts were able to study the spread and treatments of the COVID-19 virus in depth during the pandemic. The COVID-19 vaccines are effective and safe, and people who are vaccinated are less likely to get severe disease. The new type of Vaccines – messenger RNA vaccines -- are as good and in some ways better than the traditional vaccines – viral-vector vaccines. For example, it will be faster to develop new vaccines with messenger RNA vaccines than with conventional vaccines – which is extremely important.

We also know how effective masks are against any airborne virus, and especially N-95 or KN-95 type masks. Social distancing is also important as a tool against the spread of the virus, and indoors a HEPA filter is very useful to provide clean air.

Therefore, the government needs to invest sufficiently in these things:

• Personal protective equipment for people caring for people infected with the disease and especially for medical staff.
• N-95 or KN-95 masks for the general public.
• Disease tests for the general public.
• Grant assistance for companies to purchase and install HEPA filters.
• Information and teaching material explaining the instructions and rules relating to the pandemic in English and Irish.
• Grants available for researchers working in the field.

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3. Early Warning System

The sooner we find out that a disease is spreading, the fewer people will die. Here are a few strategies that would help with an early warning system:

• Wastewater monitoring: this technology is used to monitor COVID-19 in the United States. They were able to predict an increase in cases of COVID-19 in local areas a few weeks in advance by analyzing waste water data, and carry out remedial work based on that.
• Respiratory Virus and Microbiome Initiative: Researchers at the Wellcome Sanger Institute in Cambridgeshire in England plan to develop tools to identify new viral threats. It is genomic surveillance and the researchers were able to quickly identify changes in the virus in Great Britain during the COVID-19 pandemic. They are now working on a system that would be able to detect infectious diseases with one inexpensive test.

It will be important for all countries to have an early warning system, with an obligation to report anything significant to the World Health Organization (WHO).

Conclusion

In my opinion, we need to have plans in two broad areas to get the best results in the next pandemic:

• Science: It is clear that science involvement in this business is vital. We have learned a lot that will be very useful in dealing much better with the next pandemic than the last one. Relevant research is also ongoing. We will be able to find infectious diseases quickly, develop vaccines and cures quickly, and better answer the question – what resources and constraints are most important to us?
• Politics: We will not be able to implement any proposal without there being the political will at a national level. Therefore, it is extremely important to focus our attention on the three points mentioned above and to keep pressure on our government to implement them. On an international level, we need to work with other countries and the World Health Organization hand in hand, because we need to have a coordinated effort towards the next pandemic.

Let's hope we don't see another pandemic, but that if we do we'll be ready to defeat it!

Ceachtanna ón bPaindéim!

Lessons from the Pandemic!

by | 2023/04/05 | Current Affairs, Science and Technology, International News, National News

Lessons from the Pandemic!

 

It's hard to believe that more than three years have passed since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic is rarely in the news now and things are almost back to how they were before. But COVID–19 killed at least 6.8 million people worldwide and more than 13 thousand people on the island of Ireland. It is important for us now to reflect on the lessons we have learned and with that knowledge to better prepare for the next pandemic. In this article, we will highlight five important lessons from the pandemic. In the next article, we will mention five important recommendations of the next pandemic.

 

 

Lesson 1 – Put your faith in science instead of rumours

 

 

We take it for granted now, but the importance of vaccines and how quickly they were developed cannot be overemphasized. Not only that, but the development of an m-RNA vaccine is nothing short of a miracle – an innovative and revolutionary approach to vaccine design. Normally, it takes up to 15 years to design a vaccine, but it only took one year for COVID-19! Anti-vaccination misinformation did a lot of damage, because it scared some people, and they therefore refused the vaccine. Vaccines (including m-RNA vaccines) are safe, potent and effective. The more people who are vaccinated, the better the spread of the disease is prevented.

 

 

Lesson 2 – Masks work against the virus

 

 

Masks are able to slow down the spread of the coronavirus. There was uncertainty in the United States about that at first, because the authorities wanted to keep masks for doctors and medical staff to protect them from the virus. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) initially said that people who were not infected did not need to wear masks, but then changed their recommendation and said that everyone should wear a mask. Their messages were unfortunately conflicting and people were not quite sure what to do. As for what kind of masks to wear, there was a shortage of N-95 masks, and people had to wear cloth masks, which were not very effective against the virus.

 

 

Lesson 3 – Indoor air quality is important

 

 

At first, we didn't know much about how the virus spreads. But over time, we learned that airborne transmission is the most effective method of spreading the virus. Therefore, it is very important to use an air filter to remove virus particles. The best filter is a high efficiency particulate air filter (HEPA filter). Such a system is able to significantly reduce the amount of the COVID-19 virus, and it also reduces other disease vectors – such as influenza.

 

 

Lesson 4 – Wastewater monitoring is very useful in a virus pandemic

 

 

Early in the pandemic, the idea to monitor wastewater arose and that exercise grew as an approach over time. People shed particles of the COVID-19 virus before they have symptoms of the disease. Any surge in COVID-19 cases can be predicted a few weeks in advance by analyzing wastewater data. This analysis can be done area by area, and that is a great help in putting together a plan against the virus.

 

 

Lesson 5 – Genomic surveillance is necessary

 

 

Unfortunately, the virus mutates from time to time and changes the outer covering so that vaccines are no longer as effective. It is therefore necessary to design a new vaccine against a new variant, in a kind of biological warfare. Therefore, it is very important for all countries to be able to carry out genomic surveillance and find new variants as soon as possible. Even after the pandemic, it is still necessary to be alert, because you would never know when a new dangerous version will come out.

 

 

Conclusion

 

 

We feel relieved that the pandemic is now over, and life is almost back to normal. The pandemic was very painful and a large number of people died from the virus so it is easy to put the bad memories behind us and carry on as before the pandemic. But we have to go against our nature in this situation and not forget the pandemic and the lessons mentioned above. More than that, based on the lessons we've learned, we need to put measures in place to conquer the next pandemic, whenever it happens.

 

 

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Rudaí sa spéir!

Things in the Sky!

by | 2023/02/22 | Current Affairs, Science and Technology, International News

Rudaí sa Spéir!

What is China up to? That's the question on everyone's mind after the recent major international incident between China and the United States. A senior military official said a balloon was seen on January 28, on the northern side of the Aleutian Islands in Alaska. The balloon was about 18 kilometers high. It followed a flight path over Canada and then over Idaho in the United States. It arrived in Montana on February 1st and when flights were banned at the Billings airport, people looked up in the sky and caught sight of the balloon.

 

President Biden first heard about the balloon on January 31 and asked a top general to review military options.

 

National and international diplomatic fallout quickly followed. In the United States, there was a difference of opinion about what should be done. Republicans took the opportunity to criticize Biden for his inaction, saying he should have destroyed the balloon as soon as he learned about it. But Biden said he did just that – with one condition – don't take the risk that anyone would die as a result. Therefore, it was not destroyed until it was over the sea – which happened on February 4, over the Atlantic ocean.

 

China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced its strong displeasure and objection over Washington's decision to shoot down the balloon, claiming it was a Chinese civilian aircraft that had accidentally entered the United States. "China will firmly protect the legitimate rights of the enterprise in question, and reserves the right to respond later," the Foreign Ministry said in a statement. The United States did not believe it was a civilian aircraft, but the Pentagon determined it was a Chinese surveillance device, and Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken postponed his trip to China as a result. It is strange that this (all) happened before the Secretary's trip, when his aim was to restore good relations with China. That's not the kind of thing that would foster good relations between them, and we have to wonder if the Chinese President, Xi Jinpeng, knew that that balloon would be violating US airspace at the same time as Secretary Blinken's visit (was scheduled to occur) .

 

Reconciliation will now be difficult, with China is claiming thing and the United States another, regarding the balloon. It is vital for the two superpowers to keep their distance for a while, before making another attempt to restore good relations.

 

UFOs?

 

It may be a coincidence but it is worrying that three more aircraft have entered the airspace over North America since then! After what had happened to the balloon, they were shot down without delay. The authorities said nothing about them except that they were not as sophisticated as the balloon. Oddlly enough, a couple of them were not balloons, apparently, but they were not sure about the propulsion system used. As a result, there were whispers that they were UFOs. Asked at a news conference whether an extraterrestrial origin was out of the question, Glen D. VanHerck, commander of the Air Force Northern Command, said, "I can't rule anything out at this point." But in other interviews, US national security officials said it was not an extraterrestrial spacecraft. No one, said one senior official, thinks these things are other than just products made here on Earth.

 

Parting Words

 

Up until February 4, 2023, no aircraft had been brought to the ground over North America. Since then, four aircraft have been brought to the ground! This raises many questions about what is going on, and who is behind this attack?

 

Undoubtedly, the first aircraft - the balloon - belongs to China. We will know more about the balloon before long, after the United States has examined the pieces they recovered from the sea. China was probably spying on the United States with that balloon. If so, they won’t be in a hurry back!

 

As for the other aircraft, the US government remains silent as of this writing. The government will be pressured to issue a statement soon enough, and that will be very interesting to see. I hope it's not alien spaceships!

 

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Intleacht Shaorga Ghiniúnach!

Generative Artificial Intelligence

by | 2023/01/18 | Current Affairs, Science and Technology, International News, Opinion

Generative Artificial Intelligence

According to experts on the subject, artificial intelligence (AI) will reach a point, soon enough, where the machines will be more powerful than their creators. Undoubtedly, the power of AI is increasing faster and faster and the technology is just starting out! Like it or not, AI will play a central role in our lives before long.

When we think of IS, it seems that we think of robots and machines. Although we are correct, it is essentially software. When you run AI software on the distributed computing system called the Cloud, that forms a very powerful platform. AI software uses algorithms to process data located on the internet, to make decisions without any human intervention. The AI branch called Generative AI generates images, text - including poetry, music and artwork.

As a new field of AI, Generative AI is developing rapidly. There are now products online that allow users to try Generative AI for themselves, for free. One organization is responsible for that – OpenAI.

OpenAI

OpenAI was started in San Francisco in 2015 as a non-profit organization. In 2019, however, OpenAI partnered with Microsoft. Microsoft invested $1 billion in it at that time, and they are thinking of investing 10 billion soon. Microsoft intends to integrate Generative AI with their search engine, Bing (similar to Google).

In 2020, OpenAI announced GPT-3, a language model trained on trillions of words from the internet. In 2021, OpenAI released DALL-E, a deep learning neural network that can generate digital images from textual descriptions.

Around December 2022, OpenAI received widespread media coverage after they launched a free preview of ChatGPT, their new chat bot. According to OpenAI, over a million people logged in in the first week.

DALL-E and ChatGPT

You can create images with DALL-E and create text with ChatGPT.

I asked DALL-E to create a picture of 'a clock in the desert in the style of the artist Salvador Dali', and DALL-E drew some amazing computer generated images that were all very interesting. I recommend you try DALL-E. There is an app available for your smartphone, and you will have a lot of fun playing with it.

When I asked the question "do many people speak Irish?" on ChatGPT, part of its response was as follows (with a few corrections):

"Many people speak Irish in this country, where the language was a living language before. Irish is the official language in this country and it is also being used as a language of education in some schools and as a spoken language in some areas of the country, including the Gaeltacht areas."

I suggest you try ChatGPT as well. Go to the site https://chat.openai.com/chat and you will be able to use it for free!

Advantages and Disadvantages

We need to discuss the pros and cons of Generative AI. Undoubtedly, it is a controversial topic. On the one hand, this technology puts powerful new tools in our hands, to help us in new ways that were not available before. Writers, artists, musicians and the like will be able to quickly create comprehensive frameworks using Generative AI, and will be able to spend more time in creative thinking!

On the other hand, there are great challenges to be solved because of important issues. It will be difficult for the law to keep up with the rapid pace of technology. Because Generative AI relies on the data available on the internet – data of all kinds both good and bad, the system is fundamentally biased as a result. Basically, this system is unable to distinguish between high quality and poor quality data. There are also issues of copyright, intellectual property and plagiarism of other people's work. Perhaps even worse, cybercriminals will be able to use technology to commit more sophisticated cybercrime online.

Conclusion

Whether we like it or not, there is no stopping the development of this revolutionary technology. We need to reduce any negative impact as much as possible. We will have to implement new rules and regulations to do that, both nationally and internationally.

In my opinion, when Generative AI is used correctly, new miraculous abilities are placed in our hands, abilities that will improve year after year.

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Leigheas Draíochta?

Leigheas Draíochta?

by | 2021/08/11 | Current Affairs, Science and Technology, Opinion

Chuir mé ár n-eitiltí in áirithe le déanaí chun taisteal ó Mheiriceá go hÉirinn.  Beagnach díreach tar éis an chnaipe a bhrú tháinig aiféala ceannaitheora orm. B’fhearrde dom gan aon rud nua a léamh faoin gcoróinvíreas, go háirithe faoin gcineál Delta. Fiosracht a mharaigh an cat, agus ní fhéadfainn gan taighde a dhéanamh faoin víreas. Thosaigh mé ag tarraingt ar shnáitheanna scaoilte m’fhiosrachta agus ag léamh gach rud a chaith Google suas. Ach dá mhéad alt a léigh mé is ea is mó ceisteanna a bhí agam.  Agus dá mhéad ceisteanna a bhí agam is ea is mó buaireamh a tháinig orm.  

Roimh an gcineál Delta, cheap mé go raibh mé dochloíte tar éis dom a bheith vacsaínithe! Ach ní mar a shíltear a bhítear!  D’athraigh an cineál Delta den choróinvíreas an cluiche go hiomlán, ar an drochuair. Déanta na fírinne, níl aon leigheas draíochta ar fáil chun dul i ngleic leis an gcoróinvireas. Ach is uirlis troda tábhachtach agus éifeachtach é an vacsaín, mar sin féin, fiú in aghaidh na gcineálacha nua, suas go dtí seo ar aon nós. Gan dabht is í an fhadhb is mó atá againn ná na daoine nach bhfuil vacsaínithe, mar is gorlann cineálacha nua den choróinvíreas iad. Is dainséar iad ní amháin dóibh féin, ach dúinn a bhfuil vacsaínithe freisin, mar tá céatadán beag dúinn nach bhfuil imdhíonacht againn ar an víreas agus a chineálacha. Níos measa ná sin, b’fhéidir go dtiocfaidh cineál nua nach mbeidh aon éifeacht ag an vacsaín air! Bheadh orainn dul ar ais go dtí cearnóg a haon! A Dhiabhal!

Tá sé soiléir nach bhfuil na freagraí go léir faighte againn fós mar gheall ar an gcineál Delta, agus tá na saineolaithe ag obair go dian chun iad a fháil. Ach tá roinnt eolais againn faoin am seo, agus níl cuma mhaith ar chúrsaí, ó thaobh an virís de. Agus sin an fáth go bhfuil mé idir dhá chomhairle anois mar gheall ar mo shocruithe taistil. Ach tá na ticéid faighte agam anois, agus cuirfidh mé cos i dtaca ag an bpointe seo. Seans maith fós nach rachaidh cúrsaí in olcas agus go mbeimid in ann taisteal go hÉirinn. Ach cad atá ar eolas againn faoi láthair faoin víreas agus cad iad na féidearthachtaí as seo amach?  

Cineál Delta den Choróinvireas

Déan dearmad ar gach cineál den choróinvíreas ach an cineál Delta, mar scaipeann an cineál Delta i bhfad níos tapúla ná aon chineál eile. Thosaigh an cineál seo san India ag deireadh 2020, agus anois tá sé tar éis spré chuig 85 tír ar a laghad.  Sna Stáit Aontaithe, is é an cineál Delta atá i gceist i 83 de na cásanna COVID-19 go léir.  Níl na saineolaithe cinnte fós, ach ceapann siad go bhfuil an cineál Delta timpeall 50% níos tógálaí ná an cineál Alpha, agus 100% níos tógálaí ná an chéad chineál, nach raibh litir ag baint leis. Dúirt taighdeoirí ón tSín go bhfuil i bhfad níos mó cáithníní den víreas ag teacht amach san aer ó dhaoine leis an gcineál Delta COVID-19 ná mar a bhí leis an gcéad cineál, agus gurb é sin fáth amháin a bhfuil sé níos tógálaí.  

Éifeachtacht an vacsaín

Is é príomhaidhm aon vacsaín ná beatha daoine a shábháil. Dealraíonn sé go bhfuil an vacsaín in aghaidh COVID-19 an-éifeachtach sa tslí sin.  Meastar go bhfuil an vacsaín chomh héifeachtach in aghaidh galair dhéin anois agus a bhí sé riamh. Ach cé nach bhfuil siad cinnte fós, seans maith go dtolgfadh níos mó daoine vacsaínithe COVID-19 le siomptóim laga nó gan siomptóim ar bith agus mar sin bheidís ina scaiptheoirí an ghalair. Ní rud maith é sin!  

Moladh

Chun an vacsaín a bheith éifeachtach don chine daonna in iomlán, tá sé tábhachtach do gach duine an vacsaín a fháil más féidir. I mo thuairim, is dualgas tromchúiseach, sochaíoch é sin. Gan dabht, tá a lán obair le déanamh chun an vacsaín a chur ar fáil do gach duine ar fud an domhain, ach ceapaim nach bhfuil an dara rogha againn ach é sin a dhéanamh chomh luath agus is féidir linn.

Seachas é sin a dhéanamh, beidh cuid dúinn ag fáil bháis ó COVID-19 le fada an lá, agus beidh cineálacha níos measa ar na bacáin, gan dabht!

B’fhéidir go bhfuil leigheas draíochta ar fáil, tar éis an tsaoil, má oibrímid as lámha a chéile agus ar son a chéile in aghaidh an víris!

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